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Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century.

Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by 125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century. Northern permafrost soils represent the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool (1330–1580 petagrams, Pg) on Earth. While frozen, this soil carbon reservoir is stable.

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However, recent observations, and projections, of future soil warming and permafrost thaw suggest that permafrost soil carbon will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition by microbes that generate the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4). This release of permafrost carbon as greenhouse gases constitutes a positive feedback likely to amplify climate warming beyond most current earth system model projections.

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Recent permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) estimates indicate 23–174 Pg of permafrost soil carbon emission by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, and 6–33 Pg C under RCP4.5. Such permafrost carbon emission trajectories, which were not included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), would increase global temperatures predicted for 2100 by 0.3 ± 0.2 °C (RCP8.5). Compared to CO 2, CH 4 is considered the lesser cause of warming, responsible for. Methane bubbling in an interior Alaska abrupt thaw lake. Methane bubbles released by ebullition from thaw bulbs beneath thermokarst lakes are seasonally trapped in winter lake ice forming white bubble patches. High bubbling rates of particularly strong ebullition seeps known as hotspots maintain ice-free holes in winter lake ice. Ebullition hotspots are indicative of abrupt thaw environments, where the rapid (decadal-scale) transformation of terrestrial permafrost to deep thaw bulbs beneath lakes fuels anaerobic decomposition of 14C-depleted soil organic carbon and the release of 14C-depleted CH 4 in bubbles.

Diameters of the ice-free hotspot holes shown in this October 17, 2016 photograph are between 0.4 and 0.9 m. Here we re-analyzed model output from an earth system model, the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5BGC), to identify the carbon-emissions fraction originating from gradual permafrost thaw on land, and to quantify the increase to 21st-century circumpolar permafrost-carbon emissions by including warming-induced abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes. Our abrupt thaw emissions are derived from a vertically- and latitudinally-resolved box model of permafrost carbon processes, including a novel component conceptually describing circum-Arctic thermokarst-lake dynamics and related carbon release, which we refer to here as the Abrupt Thaw (AThaw) model (Supplementary Table ). CLM4.5BGC and AThaw differ in model complexity, forcing parameters, and resolution (Methods), but both include basic sets of permafrost processes and multiple soil organic carbon pools for projecting permafrost-carbon dynamics. CLM4.5BGC focuses on gradual, homogenous thaw affecting only surface permafrost (.